The stability gate treated every evidence flip as symmetric, and that
produced a false downgrade on the candidate it was written for
(kotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#15). Re-measuring
anxious/agent-wip/release-policy-derivation over four real windows with
the same script gave 0 -> 2 -> 12 -> 15 invocations at 7/14/27/60 days:
monotonic accumulation of a step that runs about once every two days, not
a label flipping about. The 7-day window had not caught an unstable
candidate, it had failed to observe a real one.
So a thin/unmeasured reading now only overturns a `measured` one when its
window is at least 90% as wide (observed since->until span). Below that
the comparison takes a third verdict, `insufficient-window`: not filed,
not downgraded to a boundary question, no FR-6.5 self-report, and carried
forward with the wider snapshot left as the standing comparison point.
The parity is relative rather than an absolute day count because the
adequate width is a property of the candidate's invocation rate, which
the auditor does not know in advance.
Unchanged, and tested: the reverse direction (thin prior -> measured now)
still downgrades, a flip between comparably wide windows still downgrades,
and a threshold crossing with `measured` on both sides is never excused by
narrowness. An unreadable window is not an exemption either — the flip
stands and window_parity records that the check could not run.
- bin/stability-classify: window_days/window_parity/deferrable, the
insufficient-window verdict, stability_deferrals, window_parity on
findings too, insufficient_window + window_parity_ratio in the gate block
- bin/audit-snapshot: record deferrals in the snapshot notes so the row is
visible on the wiki page instead of silently dropped
- design/spec.md: FR-4.5.1 as a testable requirement; S4 restated
- design/rubric.md: the third boundary in §5b
- skills/offload-audit/SKILL.md: do not file and do not self-report a deferral
- tests: real 60-day anxious fixture; cases (f)/(f2) on real data, (j)-(n)
synthetic — 7 test files pass
Verified against the live store (~/.cache/inference-arbitrage/wiki): the
real 7.0d-vs-26.49d comparison now reports insufficient-window with zero
findings, while the real 33.4d-vs-26.49d one reports stable at 13.87% and
files normally.
README replaced (was still 'scaffolding, pre-implementation' at v0.5.1 with
two real audits already filed): usage, the six pipeline steps, the rubric's
four positions in one table, and three worked examples from real runs
(oleks/claude-plugin-cluster#56, oleks/claude-plugin-anxious#29,
kotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#15).
Publish scoped to local use per explicit user decision: already registered
in oleks-local (1.2c, since Phase 1); deliberately not added to the public
claude-plugin-index or verified on claude-plugins.oleks.space. tasks.md 8.2
records that as a decision, not an oversight, so a later session doesn't
'fix' it by publishing publicly without asking.
8.3 (optional cc-tokens upstream PR) stays open, not required for this
release. 8.4 (memory checkpoint) already satisfied — FR-9 writes on every
run plus this session's manual checkpoints.
commands/offload-audit.md cited 'spec §7' for the one-agent-per-audit rule;
that constraint now has a real home at FR-8.3 (added alongside the recursion
fix, commit 06cb5b8) and the file was out of spec-review's scope to touch.
tasks.md 8.4 predates FR-9 and still pointed a manual memory checkpoint at
wing_claude_memory/working-practice, while FR-9.3's shipped wing/room split
routes the same kind of cross-target judgment to claude-plugins/
inference-arbitrage-lessons via bin/audit-snapshot memory-notes. Two
destinations for one category of content defeats the point of a single
accumulating room, so 8.4 now points at the one the automated path already
writes to.
Suite: unchanged, exit 0 on all tests.
An independent spec-quality review (spec-review) found real drift and one real
gap, but also overstated FR-9.2 as an unenforced 'discipline' when three of its
four prohibitions are already mechanical (filing-plan only files verdict=='file',
requires --existing so a failed marker search can't silently duplicate, and
stability-classify rewrites rather than re-asks). Only 'what the analyst writes
into the judgments JSON' is genuinely unchecked — narrowed the claim to that.
The review also asserted an obligation — 'a run that leans on a recalled
conclusion must say so in the summary' — that didn't exist in any procedure.
Rather than strip a good idea, implemented it: skills/offload-audit/SKILL.md §7
and agents/offload-analyst.md §5 now require exactly that disclosure.
Same class of error, caught independently: FR-7.3's new stability/tracker-
separation clause describes what the analyst's spoken report can do, not what
the rendered wiki page does — snapshot_candidate carries no stability field, and
findings from stability-classify never enter the snapshot. Documented the gap
and its mechanical cause (widening the snapshot schema, not the renderer) rather
than leaving the spec's claim wrong.
FR-6.5, the FR-9.3 wing/room table, and the Q1/Q3 resolutions the review added
were checked against the shipped code and are accurate; left unchanged.
Suite: 159 assertions, exit 0.
An audit that forgets every run makes the analyst re-derive the same judgment
calls from scratch each time, and loses the declined-candidate reasoning that is
the most expensive thing a run produces.
Two new audit-snapshot subcommands, both with `pages`' contract — filesystem in,
JSON out, no MCP call ever made here:
memory-queries what to search before grading
memory-notes the drawers and kg facts to write after the run
Placement: target-scoped findings go to the audited plugin's own wing (room
`inference-arbitrage-audits`), mirroring FR-6.1's "the finding belongs on the
target's surface"; cross-target calibration goes to `claude-plugins` (room
`inference-arbitrage-lessons`) on every run regardless of outcome. Rooms are
namespaced by this plugin's name because plugin-named wings really do collide
with unrelated ones (`cluster`, `imagex`), and a namespaced room makes that a
shelving overlap rather than a content collision.
Reading is advisory and never a gate: nothing recalled may override
boundary-classify (FR-4.2) or stability-classify (FR-4.5), excuse skipping the
marker search, or re-grade a returned verdict.
The memory renderers deliberately do NOT reuse render_run/render_latest.
`snapshot.notes` is caller-supplied free text that legitimately reaches a wiki
page in this plugin's own repo, and must never reach a drawer in a wing shared
with other projects. They read from a fixed allowlist of structured fields —
allowlist, never blocklist, since a blocklist is one new snapshot field away
from leaking.
The MCP calls are not covered by tests/memory.test.sh and are not faked there.
That is the point of putting all the judgment in the script: what remains
untestable is one verbatim tool call with nothing in it to get wrong. The live
round trip was verified by hand against the real anxious snapshot.
Phase 7 filed anxious/agent-wip/release-policy-derivation as `measured` at
11.94% of audited spend on a 30-day window. The same candidate over 7 days came
back `thin` at 0.00%. Only the date range differed. A human reading either issue
body alone cannot know the other exists, which is rubric.md §4a's failure mode
reached through the plugin's own headline number.
That was caught by a human running a second skeptical review — luck, not a
control. It is now mechanical, in the same register as FR-4.2's overrule-case
gate:
- bin/stability-classify matches each `file` candidate against the most recent
prior snapshot recording it (FR-5.2 identity) and downgrades it to a boundary
question if `measurement_strength` changed or the share crossed the 2% filing
threshold between windows. Movement within a label is a trend, not an
instability; no prior window is `unchecked`, not unstable (FR-2.4).
- The downgrade is a finding against THIS repo, not the target's — the target
did not change, the auditor described it two ways. Carries an `ia-stability`
marker so a re-run comments rather than duplicating.
- bin/ia_store.py factors the store and identity resolution out of
audit-snapshot so both scripts hash signatures identically. A divergence there
would make the gate match nothing and fail open.
Documented as spec FR-4.5 and rubric §5b (shipped verbatim in references/).
Wired into skills/offload-audit as step 4b, before filing-plan; steps 5-6 now
consume its output rather than classified.json.
S4 is retired in its old form — a human triage catching a bad candidate is not a
repeatable test — and re-passed as: the gate catches the real
release-policy-derivation case with no human in the loop. Asserted in
tests/stability.test.sh case (f) against the verbatim two-window Phase 7 output.
Closeskotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#11
Suite: 178 assertions, exit 0.
S1-S3 and S5-S8 pass; S4 is prepared but deliberately unfiled pending user
sign-off (tasks.md 7.4 stays unchecked).
Two bugs surfaced by running the composed pipeline against real data rather
than synthetic fixtures, both in load-bearing places:
audit-snapshot: cost_per_invocation folded to 0 when a candidate had zero
invocations in a window, so a step that simply did not run reported -100% and
direction() called it `shrunk`. That is the quiet-window artefact FR-5.4 exists
to prevent, one level up from absolute tokens, and it contradicted direction()'s
own docstring. It is now None, metric_delta marks the pair `unmeasured`,
direction returns a new `unmeasured` status, and the pages render "not run".
tests/calibration/mask-worktree-audit.py: recomputed script_loc from scripts
alone, silently dropping all 1051 LOC of worktree-discipline's hooks. Masking
one 272-LOC script appeared to remove 1323, taking script_coverage 0.353 -> 0.083
instead of 0.297, which let S3 pass partly on an artefact of the mask. The mask
now matches build_aggregate. S3 still flags the known cut `high` /
llm-over-script-digest on the corrected, harder input.
Both fixes carry regression tests; suite is 156 assertions, exit 0.
bin/audit-snapshot write|list|diff, plus two subcommands that carry the wiki
bridge: `pages` emits what to publish and `import` seeds a cold cache from a
wiki-fetched snapshots.jsonl. The script is offline and filesystem-only — it
mirrors the wiki tree into a local store and never opens a socket, so the
plugin still holds no Gitea credentials and the push stays an explicit caller
action. Resolves the tension in plan §5, where "cloned and pushed" and "never
writes Gitea directly" cannot both be true of one process.
Identity resolves issue -> signature hash -> slug (FR-5.2); a hash change under
a stable identity is reported as signature-drifted rather than a silent
disappearance. Diff verdicts come from cost-per-invocation and share-of-spend
with a 10% noise band (FR-5.4) so a quiet window cannot read as progress.
`resolved` is the strict FR-5.5 conjunction — issue closed AND remeasured under
the same 2%/3-invocation bar boundary-classify uses to file; everything else
that merely stopped being reported is claimed-fixed-unconfirmed, naming the
missing leg.
Two additions to the plan §6 schema, both because a requirement is otherwise
uncomputable: target.skills (stale needs to tell "deleted" from "got cheap")
and measurements_by_signature (resolution needs a later window's cost for a
candidate that is gone).
references/boundary-rubric.md is design/rubric.md verbatim (4.1).
skills/boundary-rubric is usable standalone on a single step before any code
exists — the rubric is more valuable applied before the fact than after (4.2).
agents/offload-analyst classifies pre-computed inventory/scan JSON, leads with
coverage, treats hook/prose drift as its own category, and enforces the hard
gate: no overrule case -> boundary question, never filed (4.3).
bin/boundary-classify applies rubric §6's confidence table and the FR-4.2 filing
gate. The determinism-test outcomes and the falsifiability triple are inference;
grading them is a lookup, so it is a script rather than agent prose (FR-8.1).
Calibration gate (4.4) passes on real runs:
- token-budget -> 0 high-confidence, "nothing to offload here"
- worktree-discipline with bin/worktree-audit masked out
-> worktree-safety classification at high,
position llm-over-script-digest
tests/classify.test.sh asserts both gates plus synthetic table cases; 67
assertions green across the suite.
Oleks