The stability gate treated every evidence flip as symmetric, and that
produced a false downgrade on the candidate it was written for
(kotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#15). Re-measuring
anxious/agent-wip/release-policy-derivation over four real windows with
the same script gave 0 -> 2 -> 12 -> 15 invocations at 7/14/27/60 days:
monotonic accumulation of a step that runs about once every two days, not
a label flipping about. The 7-day window had not caught an unstable
candidate, it had failed to observe a real one.
So a thin/unmeasured reading now only overturns a `measured` one when its
window is at least 90% as wide (observed since->until span). Below that
the comparison takes a third verdict, `insufficient-window`: not filed,
not downgraded to a boundary question, no FR-6.5 self-report, and carried
forward with the wider snapshot left as the standing comparison point.
The parity is relative rather than an absolute day count because the
adequate width is a property of the candidate's invocation rate, which
the auditor does not know in advance.
Unchanged, and tested: the reverse direction (thin prior -> measured now)
still downgrades, a flip between comparably wide windows still downgrades,
and a threshold crossing with `measured` on both sides is never excused by
narrowness. An unreadable window is not an exemption either — the flip
stands and window_parity records that the check could not run.
- bin/stability-classify: window_days/window_parity/deferrable, the
insufficient-window verdict, stability_deferrals, window_parity on
findings too, insufficient_window + window_parity_ratio in the gate block
- bin/audit-snapshot: record deferrals in the snapshot notes so the row is
visible on the wiki page instead of silently dropped
- design/spec.md: FR-4.5.1 as a testable requirement; S4 restated
- design/rubric.md: the third boundary in §5b
- skills/offload-audit/SKILL.md: do not file and do not self-report a deferral
- tests: real 60-day anxious fixture; cases (f)/(f2) on real data, (j)-(n)
synthetic — 7 test files pass
Verified against the live store (~/.cache/inference-arbitrage/wiki): the
real 7.0d-vs-26.49d comparison now reports insufficient-window with zero
findings, while the real 33.4d-vs-26.49d one reports stable at 13.87% and
files normally.
reconstruct_invocations() only sees already-attributed turns and splits on a
wall-clock idle gap (10 min default); it has no signal for unrelated
activity between two genuinely separate same-skill calls, so back-to-back
invocations closer together than the gap collapse into one reported
invocation. This inflates the headline per-invocation figures quoted in
filed issue bodies without affecting group totals (weighted_tokens,
offload_value, share_of_audited_spend).
Sidechain-leakage was investigated as the suspected root cause and ruled
out: turn attribution (the `mine` check) is correct, nothing session-wide
enters `turns`. The real, narrower defect is invocation-count inflation
from idle-gap merging.
Adds `totals.invocation_caveat` to offload-scan's JSON output, threads it
through audit-snapshot's snapshot totals, and renders it as a note in the
issue-body template so downstream issue bodies don't overstate confidence
in the per-invocation figure.
Fixeskotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#12
kotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#10 — a hook file is only counted
if it's referenced by .claude-plugin/hooks.json, executable, or has a
shebang. hooks/hooks.json itself is always excluded regardless, since it
is configuration rather than logic. mask-worktree-audit.py needed no
change: it derives script_loc from the already-filtered hooks[] output.
Bumps plugin.json to 0.6.2 (fix).
bin/boundary-classify defined its own copy of the spec §5.2.7 filing
threshold that only happened to match ia_store.py's copy, which
bin/stability-classify's FR-4.5 stability gate actually reads. Tuning
either constant independently would silently desynchronize the gate
from the classifier it's meant to gate. ia_store.py is now the single
definition; boundary-classify imports it.
MIN_INVOCATIONS/MIN_ATTRIBUTED_TURNS are left as-is: stability-classify
does not import or use them, so their duplication doesn't create the
same fail-silently risk. Centralizing all thresholds via
references/signals-catalog.md remains a separate, larger follow-up per
the issue's "Related / proper fix" note.
Fixeskotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#14
README replaced (was still 'scaffolding, pre-implementation' at v0.5.1 with
two real audits already filed): usage, the six pipeline steps, the rubric's
four positions in one table, and three worked examples from real runs
(oleks/claude-plugin-cluster#56, oleks/claude-plugin-anxious#29,
kotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#15).
Publish scoped to local use per explicit user decision: already registered
in oleks-local (1.2c, since Phase 1); deliberately not added to the public
claude-plugin-index or verified on claude-plugins.oleks.space. tasks.md 8.2
records that as a decision, not an oversight, so a later session doesn't
'fix' it by publishing publicly without asking.
8.3 (optional cc-tokens upstream PR) stays open, not required for this
release. 8.4 (memory checkpoint) already satisfied — FR-9 writes on every
run plus this session's manual checkpoints.
decline_reason() only ever read a candidate's own grade, so a candidate
boundary-classify graded high/complete-triple -- meaning it cleared FR-4.2
fine -- fell through to the generic 'did not clear the filing threshold'
line when stability-classify downgraded it afterward. That's the opposite of
what happened, and it directly contradicted the correct FR-4.5 section
rendered a few lines below it in the same judgment-calls drawer, poisoning
the next audit's step-2b recall with a false reason.
Found live: real audit of anxious (2026-07-30) downgraded
agent-wip/release-policy-derivation at 11.85% of audited spend -- the one
gate it DID clear -- and the drawer said it didn't. Filed and now fixed as
kotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#16.
Fix keeps FR-4.2's own check order first (a candidate can coincidentally be
named in an unrelated stability finding without having actually cleared
those checks) and only replaces the final fallback, since a candidate that
reaches it cleared every earlier check on its own grade -- it cannot have
also failed the filing threshold on its own merits.
New regression case (h) in tests/memory.test.sh. Suite: all tests pass.
An audit that forgets every run makes the analyst re-derive the same judgment
calls from scratch each time, and loses the declined-candidate reasoning that is
the most expensive thing a run produces.
Two new audit-snapshot subcommands, both with `pages`' contract — filesystem in,
JSON out, no MCP call ever made here:
memory-queries what to search before grading
memory-notes the drawers and kg facts to write after the run
Placement: target-scoped findings go to the audited plugin's own wing (room
`inference-arbitrage-audits`), mirroring FR-6.1's "the finding belongs on the
target's surface"; cross-target calibration goes to `claude-plugins` (room
`inference-arbitrage-lessons`) on every run regardless of outcome. Rooms are
namespaced by this plugin's name because plugin-named wings really do collide
with unrelated ones (`cluster`, `imagex`), and a namespaced room makes that a
shelving overlap rather than a content collision.
Reading is advisory and never a gate: nothing recalled may override
boundary-classify (FR-4.2) or stability-classify (FR-4.5), excuse skipping the
marker search, or re-grade a returned verdict.
The memory renderers deliberately do NOT reuse render_run/render_latest.
`snapshot.notes` is caller-supplied free text that legitimately reaches a wiki
page in this plugin's own repo, and must never reach a drawer in a wing shared
with other projects. They read from a fixed allowlist of structured fields —
allowlist, never blocklist, since a blocklist is one new snapshot field away
from leaking.
The MCP calls are not covered by tests/memory.test.sh and are not faked there.
That is the point of putting all the judgment in the script: what remains
untestable is one verbatim tool call with nothing in it to get wrong. The live
round trip was verified by hand against the real anxious snapshot.
commands/offload-audit.md tells a heavy-target caller to hand the work to
Agent(offload-analyst). Nothing told the analyst it IS that delegation target,
so on a large plugin it re-judged the target heavy by the same criteria and
spawned another offload-analyst instance, which did the same again — observed
live against the cluster plugin (11 agents, ~27 skills), 3-4 levels deep, each
restarting the same early measurement steps with no forward progress.
Fixed by making the analyst explicit that its only Agent calls are the fixed
filing chain, and scoping the command's delegation guidance to the top level
only.
Phase 7 filed anxious/agent-wip/release-policy-derivation as `measured` at
11.94% of audited spend on a 30-day window. The same candidate over 7 days came
back `thin` at 0.00%. Only the date range differed. A human reading either issue
body alone cannot know the other exists, which is rubric.md §4a's failure mode
reached through the plugin's own headline number.
That was caught by a human running a second skeptical review — luck, not a
control. It is now mechanical, in the same register as FR-4.2's overrule-case
gate:
- bin/stability-classify matches each `file` candidate against the most recent
prior snapshot recording it (FR-5.2 identity) and downgrades it to a boundary
question if `measurement_strength` changed or the share crossed the 2% filing
threshold between windows. Movement within a label is a trend, not an
instability; no prior window is `unchecked`, not unstable (FR-2.4).
- The downgrade is a finding against THIS repo, not the target's — the target
did not change, the auditor described it two ways. Carries an `ia-stability`
marker so a re-run comments rather than duplicating.
- bin/ia_store.py factors the store and identity resolution out of
audit-snapshot so both scripts hash signatures identically. A divergence there
would make the gate match nothing and fail open.
Documented as spec FR-4.5 and rubric §5b (shipped verbatim in references/).
Wired into skills/offload-audit as step 4b, before filing-plan; steps 5-6 now
consume its output rather than classified.json.
S4 is retired in its old form — a human triage catching a bad candidate is not a
repeatable test — and re-passed as: the gate catches the real
release-policy-derivation case with no human in the loop. Asserted in
tests/stability.test.sh case (f) against the verbatim two-window Phase 7 output.
Closeskotkan/claude-plugin-inference-arbitrage#11
Suite: 178 assertions, exit 0.
bin/audit-snapshot write|list|diff, plus two subcommands that carry the wiki
bridge: `pages` emits what to publish and `import` seeds a cold cache from a
wiki-fetched snapshots.jsonl. The script is offline and filesystem-only — it
mirrors the wiki tree into a local store and never opens a socket, so the
plugin still holds no Gitea credentials and the push stays an explicit caller
action. Resolves the tension in plan §5, where "cloned and pushed" and "never
writes Gitea directly" cannot both be true of one process.
Identity resolves issue -> signature hash -> slug (FR-5.2); a hash change under
a stable identity is reported as signature-drifted rather than a silent
disappearance. Diff verdicts come from cost-per-invocation and share-of-spend
with a 10% noise band (FR-5.4) so a quiet window cannot read as progress.
`resolved` is the strict FR-5.5 conjunction — issue closed AND remeasured under
the same 2%/3-invocation bar boundary-classify uses to file; everything else
that merely stopped being reported is claimed-fixed-unconfirmed, naming the
missing leg.
Two additions to the plan §6 schema, both because a requirement is otherwise
uncomputable: target.skills (stale needs to tell "deleted" from "got cheap")
and measurements_by_signature (resolution needs a later window's cost for a
candidate that is gone).
references/boundary-rubric.md is design/rubric.md verbatim (4.1).
skills/boundary-rubric is usable standalone on a single step before any code
exists — the rubric is more valuable applied before the fact than after (4.2).
agents/offload-analyst classifies pre-computed inventory/scan JSON, leads with
coverage, treats hook/prose drift as its own category, and enforces the hard
gate: no overrule case -> boundary question, never filed (4.3).
bin/boundary-classify applies rubric §6's confidence table and the FR-4.2 filing
gate. The determinism-test outcomes and the falsifiability triple are inference;
grading them is a lookup, so it is a script rather than agent prose (FR-8.1).
Calibration gate (4.4) passes on real runs:
- token-budget -> 0 high-confidence, "nothing to offload here"
- worktree-discipline with bin/worktree-audit masked out
-> worktree-safety classification at high,
position llm-over-script-digest
tests/classify.test.sh asserts both gates plus synthetic table cases; 67
assertions green across the suite.
Oleks