From b14d7e4bdbd0bf2da82ecda7fd4f8920df33f3f1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Aleks Date: Mon, 18 May 2026 14:38:06 +0300 Subject: [PATCH] ingest: most-of-what-youre-building-will --- ...-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.md | 112 ++++++++++++ ...-of-what-youre-building-will.transcript.md | 167 ++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 279 insertions(+) create mode 100644 Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.md create mode 100644 Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.transcript.md diff --git a/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.md b/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..176d082 --- /dev/null +++ b/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.md @@ -0,0 +1,112 @@ +--- +title: "Большинство того, что ты строишь, заменит следующая модель — пять слоёв между тобой и нерелевантностью" +aliases: + - "Five Layers Between You and Irrelevance" + - most-of-what-youre-building-will +type: video +source: https://natesnewsletter.substack.com/p/most-of-what-youre-building-will +author: "Nate (natesnewsletter.substack.com)" +published: 2026-04-10 +processed: 2026-05-18 +themes: + - "[[Moat]]" + - "[[Implementation Layer]]" + - "[[Frontier Labs]]" + - "[[Agentic Workflow]]" +frameworks: + - "[[Five Durable Verticals]]" + - "[[Build Layer Collapse]]" + - "[[Agent-Readiness Stress Test]]" +terminology: + - "[[Wrapper Company]]" + - "[[Build Layer]]" + - "[[Trust Layer]]" + - "[[Taste Layer]]" + - "[[Liability Layer]]" + - "[[Context Layer]]" + - "[[Distribution Layer]]" +--- + +## Главный тезис + +Если твоё имя — не Anthropic, OpenAI или Google, у тебя есть проблема: следующая более умная модель уничтожит всё, что ты построил, — если ты находишься на неправильном слое. + +> "If a better model makes your product redundant instead of more valuable, you're on the wrong layer." +> *Если лучшая модель делает твой продукт лишним вместо того, чтобы делать его ценнее — ты на неправильном слое.* + +--- + +## Коллапс «слоя сборки» (Build Layer Collapse) + +Категория AI app builders выглядела как одна из самых безопасных ставок в технологиях ещё в прошлом году: + +- **Lovable** — $330M инвестиций при оценке $6.6B, $400M ARR в феврале 2026, 100 000 новых проектов в день +- **Bolt, Replit, Shipper** — аналогичная ситуация + +Проблема: все они — тонкие обёртки (thin wrappers) вокруг одних и тех же фундаментальных моделей. [[Moat]] глубиной примерно в неделю. + +> "Their moat is about a week deep." +> *Их ров — глубиной примерно в неделю.* + +Пространство схлопывается само в себя, потому что [[Frontier Labs]] выпускают модели, которые делают саму обёртку ненужной. + +--- + +## Пять устойчивых вертикалей (Five Durable Verticals) + +Пять вещей, которые AI структурно не может предоставить сам: + +| # | Вертикаль (RU) | EN | Суть | +|---|---|---|---| +| 1 | [[Trust Layer\|Доверие]] | Trust | Репутация, верификация, отношения — требуют человеческого присутствия | +| 2 | [[Context Layer\|Контекст]] | Context | Специфические данные, история, накопленный контекст компании | +| 3 | [[Distribution Layer\|Дистрибуция]] | Distribution | Существующая аудитория, каналы, сети — не генерируются моделью | +| 4 | [[Taste Layer\|Вкус / Эстетика]] | Taste | Редакционное суждение, точка зрения, курирование | +| 5 | [[Liability Layer\|Ответственность]] | Liability | Профессиональная ответственность (юристы, врачи, финансисты) | + +--- + +## Путь к выживанию (Escape Hatch) + +Компании, которые выживут, не являются просто обёртками над моделью. Примеры: + +- **Replit** — контекст (среда, история проекта, данные пользователя) +- **Vercel** — дистрибуция и [[Implementation Layer]] (инфраструктура деплоя) +- **Notion** — контекст + дистрибуция (накопленные данные рабочего пространства) + +Общий паттерн: лучшая модель делает их продукт **более** ценным, а не лишним. + +--- + +## Инструменты из материала + +Автор предлагает два промпта (не раскрыты — за paywall): + +1. **Аудит позиционирования** — в какой из пяти вертикалей ты реально находишься +2. **[[Agent-Readiness Stress Test]]** — может ли AI-агент использовать то, что ты построил + +TBD: полный текст промптов недоступен (платный контент). Открытый вопрос: **Как сформулировать собственный аудит позиционирования для AI-интегратора на основе этих пяти вертикалей?** + +--- + +## Что использовать для нашего портфеля + +Мы — AI-интегратор, работающий на [[Implementation Layer]] с фокусом на [[Business Object|бизнес-объекты]], [[Implementation Fabric|implementation fabric]] и PE как каналом. Карта пяти вертикалей ложится напрямую: + +| Вертикаль | Как применимо к нам | +|---|---| +| **Контекст** | Наш главный [[Moat]]: мы накапливаем контекст клиента (данные, процессы, [[Systems of Record]]), который модель не знает — это [[Harness]] поверх LLM | +| **Доверие** | PE-канал строится на доверии между GP и портфельными компаниями; мы — доверенный [[Forward Deployed Engineer]] | +| **Ответственность** | Клиенты не могут делегировать compliance-риски модели напрямую — нужен интегратор, берущий ответственность за [[Workflow Completion]] | +| **Дистрибуция** | Доступ через PE — это дистрибуционный [[Moat]], не воспроизводимый обёрткой | +| **Вкус** | Наш [[Evals]]-слой и суждение о качестве внедрения — то, что модель не может оценить сама | + +**Ключевой вывод**: мы не строим обёртку над моделью — мы строим слой контекста, ответственности и доверия, который делает следующую более умную модель **нашим преимуществом**, а не угрозой. + +--- + +## Связанные материалы + +- [[Frontier Alliance]] — динамика концентрации у [[Frontier Labs]] +- [[Implementation Fabric]] — слой, на котором живёт устойчивая ценность +- [[Agentic Workflow]] — agent-readiness как критерий выживания продукта \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.transcript.md b/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.transcript.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2ce2a35 --- /dev/null +++ b/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_most-of-what-youre-building-will.transcript.md @@ -0,0 +1,167 @@ +Most of What You're Building Will Be Replaced by a Better Model. 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Please upgrade. +150 +10 +7 +Most of What You're Building Will Be Replaced by a Better Model. Here Are the Five Layers Between You and Irrelevance. +If a better model makes your product redundant instead of more valuable, you're on the wrong layer. +Nate +Apr 10, 2026 +∙ Paid +150 +10 +7 +Share +If your name isn’t Anthropic or OpenAI or Google, you have a problem. You need to find a space to build in where a better model won’t just erase everything you’ve made. That problem isn’t hypothetical. It’s happening right now to a dozen companies worth billions of dollars. +The AI app builder category looked like one of the safest bets in tech as recently as last year. Lovable just raised $330M at a $6.6 billion valuation. They crossed $400M in annual recurring revenue in February, up from $100M just eight months earlier. 100,000 new projects a day. And the space is still collapsing in on itself, because most of these companies — Lovable, Bolt, Replit, Shipper, and a long tail of smaller players — are thin wrappers around the same foundation models, and their moat is about a week deep. +What’s interesting isn’t who dies. It’s what the survivors tell us about where durable value actually lives on the web. There are exactly five things AI cannot replace, and they’re going to organize the entire future of the internet. +Here’s what’s inside: +The collapse of the build layer. +Why a dozen companies racing to be your AI app builder are mostly trapped. +The escape hatch. +What separates Replit, Vercel, and Notion from the wrapper companies that will die. +The five durable verticals. +Trust, context, distribution, taste, and liability: the things AI structurally cannot provide on its own. +The real map. +How the future web organizes around these five layers, and what it means if you’re building something. +Your positioning audit and agent-readiness stress test. +Two prompts that tell you which vertical you should be building in and whether an AI agent can actually use what you’ve built. +Let me show you how the pieces fit together. +Subscribers get all posts like these! +Subscribe +Listen to this episode with a 7-day free trial +Subscribe to +Nate’s Substack +to listen to this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. +Start trial +Already a paid subscriber? +Sign in +Nate's Notebook +Welcome to my podcast! In these audio reviews of my newsletters, I am to break down complex AI topics in a way that's approachable and relatable. I want you to walk away with the confidence to leverage AI more effectively at home and at work! +Welcome to my podcast! In these audio reviews of my newsletters, I am to break down complex AI topics in a way that's approachable and relatable. I want you to walk away with the confidence to leverage AI more effectively at home and at work! +Subscribe +Listen on +Substack App +RSS Feed +Appears in episode +Nate +Recent Episodes +Executive Briefing: Stop asking if AI can do this. Start asking what shape the work is. +21 hrs ago +• +Nate +Exclusive: a conversation with Tibo from Codex on what your company has to become when the model can actually do the work +May 16 +• +Nate +The 2 prompts I'd run before any 2026 SaaS renewal (especially if you're deploying agents) +May 15 +• +Nate +Six things have to be true before AI changes a workflow. Most companies have built two. +May 14 +• +Nate +Your AI agent is rediscovering 85% of its context every run. Here's the architecture fix (+ Contract Spec, Failure Triage, and Stack ADR) +May 13 +• +Nate +Six layers your agent has to handle. Most products have only thought about two. + a responsibility-layer audit. +May 12 +• +Nate +You gave your AI agent real tools. 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