From a02e332102a33583f3d67fc8028acec2aa536656 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Aleks Date: Mon, 18 May 2026 14:43:59 +0300 Subject: [PATCH] ingest: build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix --- ...026-05-18_build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.md | 158 +++++++++++++++++ ...uild-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.transcript.md | 159 ++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 317 insertions(+) create mode 100644 Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.md create mode 100644 Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.transcript.md diff --git a/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.md b/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c67f38 --- /dev/null +++ b/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.md @@ -0,0 +1,158 @@ +--- +title: "AI Build/Buy/Hire/Wait — матрица решений для команд" +slug: build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix +source: "https://natesnewsletter.substack.com/p/build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix" +author: "Nate (natesnewsletter)" +published: 2026-05-17 +processed: 2026-05-18 +type: video +status: processed +themes: + - "[[AI Strategy]]" + - "[[Capital Allocation]]" + - "[[Future of Work]]" +frameworks: + - "[[Build-Buy-Hire-Wait Matrix]]" + - "[[Work-Shape Framework]]" + - "[[Routing Logic]]" +terminology: + - "[[Agentic Workflow]]" + - "[[Implementation Layer]]" + - "[[Workflow Completion]]" + - "[[Moat]]" + - "[[Systems of Record]]" + - "[[Evals]]" +tags: + - ai-strategy + - executive-briefing + - capital-allocation + - build-buy-hire +--- + +# AI Build/Buy/Hire/Wait — матрица решений для команд + +> "Stop asking if AI can do this. Start asking what shape the work is." +> *«Перестань спрашивать, может ли AI это сделать. Начни спрашивать, какую форму имеет эта работа.»* + +## Суть + +Большинство команд превращают вопрос распределения AI-инвестиций в технологический вопрос. Автор переформулирует его как **вопрос формы работы (work-shape question)**: правильный ответ определяется не впечатлением от демо модели, а структурой самой работы — частотой повторения, ценой ошибки, объёмом суждения, горизонтом модельного прогресса. + +Это задача **распределения капитала**, а не выбора технологии. Неправильный ответ дорого стоит в обоих направлениях. + +--- + +## 5 инвестиционных motion-ов + +| Motion | EN | Когда применять | +|---|---|---| +| Строить | Build | Уникальная логика, нет рыночного аналога | +| Купить | Buy | Рынок уже решил задачу, не core-специфика | +| Нанять | Hire | Работа требует суждения и доверия, AI не справляется | +| Автоматизировать | Automate | Повторяемо, описуемо, низкая цена ошибки | +| Ждать | Wait | Модели меняются быстро, стабильность ещё не достигнута | + +--- + +## 6-мерный фреймворк оценки + +Каждый [[Agentic Workflow]] или рабочий процесс оценивается по шести измерениям (детали за paywall, доступно только из описания): + +1. Частота повторения +2. Цена ошибки +3. Объём требуемого суждения +4. Уникальность для компании vs. рыночная зрелость +5. Горизонт модельного прогресса (риск устаревания) +6. TBD — *какое шестое измерение автор считает критическим?* + +Результат оценки маршрутизирует процесс в один из 5 motion-ов выше. + +--- + +## Матрица (двухосевая) + +**Оси:** рыночная зрелость (market maturity) × специфика компании (company specificity) + +Конкретные примеры в каждой ячейке — за paywall. Из открытой части известно, что упоминаются IBM, Klarna, Stripe. + +> TBD — *как именно Klarna и Stripe позиционированы в матрице?* + +--- + +## Прецедент Shopify + +Tobi Lütke ввёл правило: команды обязаны обосновать, **почему AI не может выполнить задачу**, прежде чем запрашивать новый найм. Это остановило найм как ответ по умолчанию на любой capacity-вопрос. + +Автор считает это необходимым, но недостаточным: вопрос «может ли AI это?» — неправильная точка остановки. Нужно идти дальше — к форме работы. + +--- + +## Статистика + +> Gartner: более **40% agentic AI-проектов** будут отменены к концу 2027 года из-за стоимости, неясной бизнес-ценности или недостаточного риск-контроля. + +→ Классифицируй работу до начала расходов. + +--- + +## 4 промпта для маршрутизации AI-инвестиций + +| Промпт | Назначение | +|---|---| +| Decomposer (декомпозитор) | Разбивает функцию на оцениваемые workflow-ы | +| Scorer (скорер) | Пишет бюджетное обоснование | +| Pressure test (стресс-тест) | Требует 3 контраргумента до коммита капитала | +| Describability gate (ворота описуемости) | Удерживает проект автоматизации, пока не заполнены 8 полей | + +--- + +## Ключевой тезис об изменении роли руководителя + +> "Routing logic is the new leadership skill." +> *«Логика маршрутизации — это новый управленческий навык.»* + +Исполнительная функция смещается от «принять решение по технологии» к «правильно классифицировать тип работы и направить капитал в нужный motion». + +--- + +## Что использовать для нашего портфеля + +**Контекст:** AI-интегратор, [[Implementation Layer]], [[Implementation Fabric]], business objects, PE как канал. + +**Прямое применение:** + +- **Матрица как инструмент пресейла.** Клиент, который не может ответить «какой это motion?», ещё не готов к автоматизации — он готов к диагностике. Это наша точка входа как [[Forward Deployed Engineer]]. + +- **Describability gate** — операционализирует «ворота читаемости» для [[Agentic Workflow]]: если workflow нельзя описать в 8 полях, [[Evals]] бессмысленны. Можно встроить в наш onboarding-чеклист. + +- **Work-shape вместо model-capability.** Разговор с PE-клиентом о portfolio companies лучше начинать не с «какую модель выбрать», а с «какую форму имеют топ-5 процессов в компании». Это смещает нас из commodity-позиции. + +- **Ошибка в обе стороны.** Нанимать против работы, которую уже делает AI = строить cost structure вокруг исчезающего дефицита. Автоматизировать работу, требующую доверия = ломать бизнес-процесс в точке, где человек был важен. Это конкретный язык для разговора с CFO/COO. + +- **Gartner 40%** — защитный аргумент против «давайте быстро построим агента». Используем как обоснование нашего подхода classify-first. + +> *Открытый вопрос для команды: какие из наших текущих engagements находятся в «wait»-ячейке матрицы, но мы уже строим?* + +--- + +## Термины + +| RU | EN | Примечание | +|---|---|---| +| Форма работы | Work-shape | Центральное понятие фреймворка | +| Маршрутизация инвестиций | Investment routing | Новая исполнительная компетенция | +| Ворота описуемости | Describability gate | Один из 4 промптов | +| Стресс-тест капитала | Pressure test | 3 контраргумента до коммита | +| Рыночная зрелость | Market maturity | Ось матрицы | +| Специфика компании | Company specificity | Ось матрицы | + +--- + +## Связанные заметки + +- [[Agentic Workflow]] +- [[Implementation Layer]] +- [[Workflow Completion]] +- [[Moat]] +- [[Systems of Record]] +- [[Evals]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/Business/Nate Corpus/2026-05-18_build-buy-hire-wait-ai-matrix.transcript.md b/Business/Nate 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Start asking what shape the work is. +A six-dimension framework for routing AI investment by the shape of the work — before the budget closes. +Nate +May 17, 2026 +∙ Paid +27 +Share +Every serious AI conversation eventually turns into the same practical question. Should we hire someone for this? Should we automate it? Should we buy a tool? Should we build the workflow ourselves? Or should we wait because the models are changing so fast that anything we build today may be obsolete in six months? +Most teams treat this as an AI question. That ends up costing time, money, and the work itself. It is a work-shape question. The right answer depends less on how impressive the model demo looked and more on the structure of the work in front of you: how often it repeats, how costly a mistake is, how much judgment it needs, and whether near-term model improvement is about to collapse what you are about to build. +Shopify gave the market one version of this question when Tobi Lütke told teams they had to show why they could not get something done with AI before asking for more headcount. It stopped hiring from being the default answer to every capacity problem. But “can AI do this?” is the wrong question to stop at. +Executives are running a capital allocation problem, not a technology question. How you allocate capital has always defined what a firm can accomplish, and the upside variance on AI investment right now is wider than most leaders have ever priced for. Pick the wrong motion for a workflow and the cost is not only the wasted spend. It is also the upside you never captured because the capital landed in the wrong place. +The wrong answer is expensive in both directions. If you hire against work that AI can already handle, you build a cost structure around disappearing scarcity. If you automate work that depends on trust and judgment, you break the business process at the point where the human mattered most. If you buy a generic tool for company-specific work, you spend months fighting the product. If you custom-build something the market has already solved, you burn scarce builders on infrastructure that should have been a line item. If you wait on a workflow that is already stable and costly, you let delay masquerade as prudence. +Gartner has put a number on it: more than 40% of agentic AI projects are forecast to be canceled by the end of 2027 because of cost, unclear business value, or inadequate risk controls. Classify the work before the spending starts. +This briefing covers: +The decision starts with the work. +A six-dimension scoring framework that routes each workflow to the right investment motion. +When to automate, build, buy, hire, or wait. +Real company examples (IBM, Klarna, Stripe) showing how the shape of the work determines the answer. +The matrix. +A two-axis visual that maps market maturity against company specificity, with named examples in every cell. +The executive job is changing. +Why routing logic is the new leadership skill, and what happens when executives and builders have the conversation together. +Four prompts that route AI investment. +A decomposer that turns a function into scoreable workflows, a scorer that writes the budget memo, a pressure test that forces three counter-arguments before capital commits, and a describability gate that holds automation projects until eight fields are filled. +Classify the work first. The investment motion follows. +Executive Circle members enjoy all these Sunday briefings! Curious? You can easily +change your plan here +Subscribe +This post is for subscribers in the AI Executive Circle plan +Upgrade to AI Executive Circle +Already in the AI Executive Circle plan? +Sign in +Nate's Notebook +Welcome to my podcast! In these audio reviews of my newsletters, I am to break down complex AI topics in a way that's approachable and relatable. I want you to walk away with the confidence to leverage AI more effectively at home and at work! +Welcome to my podcast! In these audio reviews of my newsletters, I am to break down complex AI topics in a way that's approachable and relatable. I want you to walk away with the confidence to leverage AI more effectively at home and at work! +Subscribe +Listen on +Substack App +RSS Feed +Appears in episode +Nate +Recent Episodes +Exclusive: a conversation with Tibo from Codex on what your company has to become when the model can actually do the work +May 16 +• +Nate +The 2 prompts I'd run before any 2026 SaaS renewal (especially if you're deploying agents) +May 15 +• +Nate +Six things have to be true before AI changes a workflow. Most companies have built two. +May 14 +• +Nate +Your AI agent is rediscovering 85% of its context every run. Here's the architecture fix (+ Contract Spec, Failure Triage, and Stack ADR) +May 13 +• +Nate +Six layers your agent has to handle. Most products have only thought about two. + a responsibility-layer audit. +May 12 +• +Nate +You gave your AI agent real tools. 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now | Every serious AI conversation eventually turns into the same practical question.\",\"body_html\":\" Every serious AI conversation eventually turns into the same practical question. Should we hire someone for this? Should we automate it? Should we buy a tool? Should we build the workflow ourselves? Or should we wait because the models are changing so fast that anything we build today may be obsolete in six months? +Most teams treat this as an AI question. That ends up costing time, money, and the work itself. It is a work-shape question. The right answer depends less on how impressive the model demo looked and more on the structure of the work in front of you: how often it repeats, how costly a mistake is, how much judgment it needs, and whether near-term model improvement is about to collapse what you are about to build. +Shopify gave the market one version of this question when Tobi L\u00FCtke told teams they had to show why they could not get something done with AI before asking for more headcount. It stopped hiring from being the default answer to every capacity problem. But \u201Ccan AI do this?\u201D is the wrong question to stop at. +Executives are running a capital allocation problem, not a technology question. How you allocate capital has always defined what a firm can accomplish, and the upside variance on AI investment right now is wider than most leaders have ever priced for. Pick the wrong motion for a workflow and the cost is not only the wasted spend. It is also the upside you never captured because the capital landed in the wrong place. +The wrong answer is expensive in both directions. If you hire against work that AI can already handle, you build a cost structure around disappearing scarcity. If you automate work that depends on trust and judgment, you break the business process at the point where the human mattered most. If you buy a generic tool for company-specific work, you spend months fighting the product. If you custom-build something the market has already solved, you burn scarce builders on infrastructure that should have been a line item. If you wait on a workflow that is already stable and costly, you let delay masquerade as prudence. +Gartner has put a number on it: more than 40% of agentic AI projects are forecast to be canceled by the end of 2027 because of cost, unclear business value, or inadequate risk controls. Classify the work before the spending starts. +This briefing covers: +The decision starts with the work. +A six-dimension scoring framework that routes each workflow to the right investment motion. +When to automate, build, buy, hire, or wait. +Real company examples (IBM, Klarna, Stripe) showing how the shape of the work determines the answer. +The matrix. +A two-axis visual that maps market maturity against company specificity, with named examples in every cell. +The executive job is changing. +Why routing logic is the new leadership skill, and what happens when executives and builders have the conversation together. +Four prompts that route AI investment. +A decomposer that turns a function into scoreable workflows, a scorer that writes the budget memo, a pressure test that forces three counter-arguments before capital commits, and a describability gate that holds automation projects until eight fields are filled. +Classify the work first. 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